Fire LorraineTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regionals
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.4%
avg ELO +9.8 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1340
· median 1340
· range 1340–1340
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1203
Q3 1368
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
